Dự báo đáng tin cậy
Bản tóm tắt:
Mô hình và thị trường đều nghiêng về JäPS, nhưng không cho thấy nhóm nào được yêu thích hơn. Hòa và {giây} vẫn hợp lý - đây là một trận đấu tương đối cởi mở.
Đăng nhập để xem phán quyết cá cược đầy đủ
Đăng ký miễn phí để mở khóa phán quyết cá cược cuối cùng — thị trường nào vượt qua, +EV có thể ở đâu và cảnh báo steam.
Ước tính hợp lý và giá cả thị trường khác nhau một cách khiêm tốn. Theo dõi trước giờ khai mạc.
Ước tính hợp lý cho thấy lợi thế khiêm tốn so với giá thị trường hiện tại của JäPS.
| kết quả | Hội chợ | Chợ | Bờ rìa |
|---|---|---|---|
| JäPS | 35.5% | 29.22% | +6.3 pp |
| Hòa | 29.0% | 29.6% | -0.6 pp |
| PK-35 | 35.5% | 41.18% | -5.7 pp |
Xác suất hợp lý từ mô hình thống kê Poisson/xG. Không phải tỷ lệ cá cược. Không tư vấn cá cược.
Các thị trường khác nhau có hiệu quả định giá khác nhau - 1X2 có thể vượt qua trong khi thị trường mục tiêu vẫn cho thấy lợi thế.
JäPS market context before kickoff
⚠️ Thị trường biến động on JäPS
Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.
Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.
Giai đoạn hiện tại: Giám sát thị trường
Chưa có briefing AI cho trận này. Sau khi nâng cấp máy chủ, chạy lại «Tạo tỷ lệ hàng loạt» để tạo bản tóm tắt.
{
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"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": 0.355,
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"dc_rho": -0.13,
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"fair_odds_away": 2.82,
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"fair_odds_draw": 3.45,
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"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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},
"away_xg": 1.35,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"market": "1X2",
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"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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},
"market_comparison": [
{
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"odd": 3.25
},
{
"affi_link": "https://refpa14435.com/L?tag=d_4682699m_1599c_\u0026site=4682699\u0026ad=1599",
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
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},
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
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{
"affi_link": "https://banners.dfbanners.com/redirect.aspx?pid=79572\u0026bid=19634\u0026redirectURL=http://www.dafabet.com/",
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{
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"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
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{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"odd": 3.0
}
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"risk_color": null,
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"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 3.35,
"bookmaker_id": 4,
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"market_odds": 3.04,
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"overround": 10.0,
"prob_edge": 5.6,
"value_pct": 18.8,
"value_rating": "value_bet"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 4,
"away_played": 10,
"away_score_rate": 74.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 10,
"home_score_rate": 74.1,
"no_prob": 43.5,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 56.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 56.5
},
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"home_expected": 1.35,
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"home": 1,
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{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.1
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{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"key": "1X",
"label": "J\u00e4PS or Draw",
"prob": 64.5
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "J\u00e4PS or PK-35",
"prob": 71.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or PK-35",
"prob": 64.5
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "J\u00e4PS or PK-35",
"pick_prob": 71.0
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.0,
"home_pct": 35.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "J\u00e4PS"
},
"over_under": {
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.6,
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"total_expected": 2.7,
"under_prob": 49.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 18.9,
"implied_prob": 29.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "J\u00e4PS Win",
"model_prob": 35.5,
"odds": 3.35
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.2
}
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"ev_no": -0.1474,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -14.7,
"text": "-14.7%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0565,
"ev_yes_display": {
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"raw_pct": 5.7,
"text": "+5.7%"
},
"featured": true,
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"tier": "best",
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{
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"ev_over_display": {
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"ev_under": -0.1355,
"ev_under_display": {
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{
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"max_ev_display": {
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"text": "-5.7%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3549,
"side_label": "J\u00e4PS",
"sort_key": 1785.8,
"tier": "bad_ev"
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{
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"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.6,
"hero_label": "J\u00e4PS",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"market_team": "PK-35",
"model_prob_pct": 35.5,
"model_team": "J\u00e4PS",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable forecast",
"status_line": "Model and market broadly aligned",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.6,
"fair_prob": 35.5,
"label": "J\u00e4PS",
"market_prob": 29.9,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.32,
"fair_prob": 29.0,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.32,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.28,
"fair_prob": 35.5,
"label": "PK-35",
"market_prob": 40.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.18,
"fair_prob": 50.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 45.42,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.18,
"fair_prob": 49.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 54.58,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.24,
"fair_prob": 56.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 51.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.24,
"fair_prob": 43.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 48.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.5,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "J\u00e4PS",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "J\u00e4PS"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 5.6,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "J\u00e4PS",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"model_prob_pct": 35.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Reliable forecast",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_tier": "reliable",
"summary": "The model and market both lean J\u00e4PS, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and PK-35 remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Forecast Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.6,
"hero_label": "J\u00e4PS",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on J\u00e4PS.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on J\u00e4PS.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on J\u00e4PS.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on J\u00e4PS."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on J\u00e4PS.",
"Recent line movement on J\u00e4PS (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (12/12) supports the current market view on J\u00e4PS."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"max_gap_pp": 5.6,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.0 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.0,
"max_prob_pct": 35.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 5.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.5,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "J\u00e4PS",
"market_prob_pct": 29.9,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.32,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.0,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.32,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.28,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.5,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "PK-35",
"market_prob_pct": 40.78,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on J\u00e4PS.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers PK-35 (29.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 J\u00e4PS, Market \u2192 PK-35, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": null,
"closing_odds": null,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": null,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "market_monitoring",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Market monitoring",
"entry_implied_pct": 33.33,
"entry_odds": 3.0,
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Forecast Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "pending"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/12",
"current_odds": 3.0,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "J\u00e4PS",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "J\u00e4PS",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 10669,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10669.webp",
"away_team_name": "PK-35",
"country_code": "FI",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
"country_name": "Finland",
"fixture_id": 1504242,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Finland",
"home_team_id": 9173,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9173.webp",
"home_team_name": "J\u00e4PS",
"league_country": "Finland",
"league_id": 1087,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/1087.webp",
"league_name": "Ykk\u00f6sliiga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-12 15:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4143,
"best_odd": 2.2,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0219,
"ev": -0.151,
"implied_prob": 0.4078,
"model_prob": 0.3549,
"p_final": 0.3859
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2986,
"best_odd": 3.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0009,
"ev": -0.1057,
"implied_prob": 0.2932,
"model_prob": 0.2901,
"p_final": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2748,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.299,
"model_prob": 0.3549,
"p_final": 0.3144
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.96,
"best_yes_odd": 1.87,
"edge_no": -0.0524,
"edge_yes": 0.0524,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1474,
"ev_yes": 0.0565,
"implied_no": 0.4874,
"implied_yes": 0.5126,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.75,
"edge_over": 0.0518,
"edge_under": -0.0518,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0626,
"ev_under": -0.1355,
"implied_over": 0.4542,
"implied_under": 0.5458,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0626,
"confidence": 5.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.565,
"draw_prob": 0.2901,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3549,
"over_prob": 0.506,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.494,
"xg_diff": 0.0
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0154,
"ev": -0.0568,
"implied_prob": 0.299,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.3549,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "J\u00e4PS"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0524,
"ev": 0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.5126,
"model_prob": 0.565,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0518,
"ev": 0.0626,
"implied_prob": 0.4542,
"model_prob": 0.506,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1504242,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0626,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3549,
"draw": 0.2901,
"home": 0.3549
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "PK-35",
"home": "J\u00e4PS"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.031922,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0565,
"implied_prob": 0.5126,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.565,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1504242,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-12T00:42:00.786033+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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